Insurers expect subdued business development due to a weaker economy
German insurers expect premium growth to slow down in 2023 as well: "The tense economic situation is also causing a gloomy outlook for insurers: For 2023, we expect 1.9 per cent nominal premium growth across all lines", says GDV CEO Jörg Asmussen.
Inflation and growth concerns are clouding economic outlook for 2023
While there continues to be premium growth in the property/casualty and private health insurance lines, economic uncertainty is particularly restraining expectations for life insurers. If private households continue to face sharply rising prices and economic uncertainty, nominal life insurance premium growth is likely to slow to 0.2 per cent in 2023.
“During the Corona crisis, many households consumed significantly less and instead built up savings, which also went into life insurance. However, the economic outlook for private households has clouded over, particularly due to high inflation. Long-term provision and protection tend to be postponed into the future in times of crisis."
If prices settle down and the economy stabilises, however, life insurers could see nominal growth of up to 1.3 per cent in 2023. For property/casualty insurance, economists estimate a nominal premium increase of 3.4 to 5.6 per cent; for the insurance industry as a whole, the range in the coming year will be from 1.9 to 3.4 per cent.
Updated forecast for 2022
For the current year, GDV still expects nominal premium growth of 2.5 per cent to a total of 231 billion EUR at mid-year. However, there are shifts here, especially among the lines. In property-casualty insurance, sum adjustments and coverage extensions will cause premiums to rise to a total of 79.8 billion EUR in the current year (+4.1 per cent). The current development in property and casualty insurance is thus a reflection of the difficult economic environment, characterised by rising prices and growing risks.
The situation for life insurers, meanwhile, has clouded over. Here, GDV expects nominal premium growth of 0.6 per cent for 2022 (-0.1 per cent compared with May).